The Portfolio Problem and How to Pay the Forecaster ... notes, taken by W. W. Peterson, cover several lectures in the Seminar on Information Theory offered by C. E. Shannon at M. I. T., Spring Term, 1956
[no place of publication stated]: [no publisher stated] Spring Term 1956. [1], [1]-8 pages. 11 x 8 1/2 inches. Reproduced typescript, stapled upper left. Minor repair to front wrapper at staple and overall light soiling. Two penciled corrections one in Shannon's hand. Good. Wraps. [28622]
"The Portfolio Problem" (pp 1-6) discusses the following situation: "The following analysis, due to John Kelly, was inspired by news reports of betting on whether or not the contestant on the TV program '$64,000 Question' would win. It seems that one enterprising gambler on the west coast, where the program broadcast is delayed three hours, was receiving tips by telephone before the local telecast took place. The question arose as to how well the gambler could do if the communication channel over which he received the tips was noisy."
"How to Pay the Forecaster" (pp 7-8) discusses "piecework payment to a consultant for predictions, the payment to be made according to how good the prediction is."
Neither paper is related to the mythical Shannon talk on the stock market (see 'A Mind at Play" by Soni and Goodman for an account of this mythical talk).
PROVENANCE: The personal files of Claude E. Shannon (unmarked). One of two examples in Shannon's files.
REFERENCES:
Sloane and Wyner, "Claude Elwood Shannon Collected Papers," #106
ITEM SOLD